Don't underestimate the danger

When a friend on Facebook shared the link to this article (California unlikely to see a quake like Japan's), my skeptical alert was triggered. The ability of earthquakes to occur outside our models has been demonstrated multiple times. Large earthquakes have occurred in southeastern Missouri and Charleston, SC the origins of which have been difficult to explain with our models. (ref) 

But things have moved forward in the present day as stated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS):

"Whereas specific information about the relatively immediate future is desired, whether it can be provided with much reliability is debatable. However, numerous models exist whose purpose is to make estimates of earthquake probabilities," (ref)

That's pretty much what I found in the article. The thrust fault model we use for Japan, where the Pacific Ocean floor slowly thrusts down under Asia, does predict to deeper and higher energy events than in California. Here, the strike slip fault model, where Los Angeles slips slowly to the northwest on its way to becoming an island, does not support the amount of energy needed for a > M 8.0 earthquake.

But my skepticism was redeemed, that danger still lurked, as this distinction is largely of scientific interest. Other factors in California, such as the way certain soils will act like a liquid when shaken, will unfortunately lead to catastrophic consequences even with lower energy events.